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Non-rational Beliefs in Small Open Economy Models

主    講：杜清源（澳大利亞莫納什大學）

主    持：劉  青（中國人民大學國家發(fā)展與戰(zhàn)略研究院）

時    間：2019年11月18日（周一）10:00-11:30

地    點：中國人民大學崇德西樓（原科研樓A座）916會議室

摘要：New Keynesian open economy models under rational expectations often fail to generate exchange rate volatility and comovement between countries. In this paper, we investigate whether non-rational beliefs can help explain international prices and comovement. In theory, we derive a generalized no-arbitrage condition under arbitrary beliefs, which relaxes standard uncovered interest rate parity (UIP henceforth) condition and implies a different exchange rate dynamics as in rational expectations models. Empirically, models with non-rational beliefs generate higher exchange rate volatility, however, they do not fit data better than rational expectations models when explaining comovement.

主講人簡介：杜清源，2011年博士畢業(yè)于美國哥倫比亞大學經(jīng)濟系，現(xiàn)任澳大利亞莫納什大學助理教授。主要研究領域包括國際經(jīng)濟學，宏觀經(jīng)濟學，發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學以及中國經(jīng)濟。曾在Journal of International Economics, European Economic Review, Journal of International Money and Finance, Economics Letters以及金融研究發(fā)表論文。