【活動(dòng)預(yù)告】世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與國(guó)際政治論壇
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2016-12-12Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty with surveys:
A mixed frequency approach
主辦：中國(guó)人民大學(xué)國(guó)家發(fā)展與戰(zhàn)略研究院
時(shí)間：2016年12月12日（周一）中午12:00-14:00
地點(diǎn)：中國(guó)人民大學(xué)明德主樓734會(huì)議室
論壇內(nèi)容摘要：
"We propose a new method of measuring economic uncertainty, using dispersions of forecasts from both household and professional surveys of various frequencies. With a mixed-frequency state-state model, we construct an uncertainty measure of the perceived current state of the US economy and an uncertainty measure of the one-year ahead expected state of the economy. Although distinctively constructed, we show our measures of uncertainty are highly correlated with most other existing measures. Impulse responses show uncertainty shocks lead to contraction in economic activity, and monetary policy expansion reduces uncertainty. Therefore endogenous uncertainty is an additional channel for countercyclical monetary policy.
報(bào)告人：
Zhe Ben Wang, 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士，澳大利亞Macquarie大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)系講師，曾擔(dān)任新西蘭儲(chǔ)備銀行、柏林Humboldt大學(xué)、中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院等機(jī)構(gòu)的訪問(wèn)學(xué)者，主要研究方向?yàn)楹暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，已在Journal of Macroeconomics、Economic Modelling等國(guó)際知名刊物上發(fā)表學(xué)術(shù)論文多篇。
支持媒體：
《中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)報(bào)》
